About US Recession Watch
Our Mission
US Recession Watch provides a clear, real-time view of key economic indicators that historically signal recession risk. We aggregate data from trusted government sources to help individuals, investors, and businesses understand economic conditions.
Data Sources
All data is sourced from official government and Federal Reserve sources:
Indicator Methodology
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread)
Recession signal: Inverted (negative)The yield curve measures the difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. An inverted yield curve (negative spread) has preceded every US recession since 1955, typically 6-18 months in advance.
Sahm Rule
Recession signal: ≥ 0.5Developed by economist Claudia Sahm, this indicator triggers when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low. It has identified every recession since 1970 with no false positives.
NY Fed Recession Probability
Recession signal: > 50%The Federal Reserve Bank of New York calculates a recession probability model based on the Treasury spread. Values above 30% have historically indicated elevated recession risk.
Consumer Sentiment
Recession signal: < 60The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence. Low readings often precede reduced consumer spending and economic slowdowns.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This site is for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or professional advice. Economic indicators are backward-looking and cannot predict the future with certainty. Always consult with qualified professionals before making financial decisions.
Related Projects
US Recession Watch is part of a family of economic data sites: