Is the US Headed for a Recession?
Real-time economic indicators tracking recession risk
12-Month Recession Probability
Based on NY Fed model using Treasury yield spread
Historical Trends
Recession Probability
NY Fed 12-month forward probability
Treasury Yield Curve
10-Year minus 2-Year spread
Unemployment Rate
Bureau of Labor Statistics U-3
Sahm Rule Indicator
Triggers at 0.5 (red line)
Consumer Sentiment
University of Michigan Index
Initial Jobless Claims
4-week moving average
Industrial Production
Manufacturing, mining & utilities (2017=100)
Real Retail Sales
Consumer spending adjusted for inflation
Building Permits
New housing units authorized
Fed Regional Surveys
Empire State (NY Fed)
New York manufacturing conditions
Philadelphia Fed
Mid-Atlantic manufacturing index
Richmond Fed
Fifth District manufacturing composite
Dallas Fed
Texas manufacturing outlook
Chicago Fed (CFNAI)
National economic activity
Leading Signals
Leading Economic Index
OECD Composite Leading Indicator (amplitude adjusted)
Temp Help Services
Temporary help employment (thousands)
Real Personal Income ex-Transfers
Personal income less transfer receipts, inflation-adjusted
Credit & Financial Conditions
Credit Spreads (High Yield OAS)
ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread
S&P 500
Daily closing price
Understanding Recession Indicators
Yield Curve
When short-term rates exceed long-term rates (inversion), it has preceded every recession since 1955.
Sahm Rule
Triggers when unemployment rises 0.5% above its 12-month low. Zero false positives since 1970.
NY Fed Model
Calculates 12-month forward recession probability using the Treasury spread.
Unemployment
Rising unemployment indicates economic contraction and reduced consumer spending.
Consumer Sentiment
Low confidence leads to reduced spending, which can trigger economic slowdowns.
Jobless Claims
Spike in new unemployment filings signals labor market weakness.
Industrial Production
Output from manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Declines signal economic contraction.
Retail Sales
Consumer spending drives 70% of GDP. Falling sales often precede recessions.
Building Permits
Leading indicator — housing activity often turns down before recessions begin.
Leading Index
OECD composite leading indicator designed to anticipate turning points in the business cycle relative to trend.
Regional Fed Surveys
Monthly surveys from NY, Philadelphia, Richmond, Dallas, Chicago, and Kansas City Fed districts track manufacturing conditions.
Credit Spreads
High yield bond spreads over Treasuries measure credit stress. Widening spreads signal investor fear and tighter financial conditions.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Survey of purchasing managers. Above 50 signals expansion, below 50 contraction. A leading indicator of economic turns.
Temp Help Services
Temporary employment is a leading indicator — firms cut temps before permanent layoffs. Declining temp help precedes recessions.
Related Economic Data
Data sourced from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Updated hourly. Not financial advice.